Escalation in US–Israel–Iran Conflict: Potential Economic and Operational Impacts

03 Mar 2026

Excellerate partners with organisations such as the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) to ensure that our clients remain informed of emerging local and global threats that could affect the operating environment. Recent analysis from the CRA highlights the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran as a developing geopolitical risk with potential economic implications for South Africa.

The US and Israeli strikes targeting Iranian leadership and military infrastructure and resultant retaliatory attacks by Iran on US military bases and civilian infrastructure across several Gulf states, including Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, raises the risk of broader regional escalation in a region that remains central to global energy production and shipping routes.

Markets have already begun responding to the heightened geopolitical risk. Crude oil prices have risen to approximately $82 per barrel, the highest level since early 2025, and could climb further if the conflict disrupts shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil transit routes.

South Africa is particularly vulnerable to such disruption. With only one operational refinery and a heavy reliance on imported petroleum products – much of which is sourced from countries linked to the Gulf energy system – the country is exposed to fluctuations in global oil prices and supply chains. Higher oil prices, combined with a weaker rand, would likely translate into increased domestic fuel costs, placing pressure on transport, food prices and sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture and construction.

In addition, South African businesses with a presence in the Gulf may see their operations affected, including through heightened cyber-security risks and operational disruptions linked to regional instability. Excellerate itself maintains a presence in the United Arab Emirates, underscoring the importance of closely monitoring developments in the region.

Should the conflict persist or expand, South African businesses could face a combination of energy price volatility, supply chain disruption and inflationary pressure. While certain sectors, such as mining, may benefit from higher gold prices during periods of geopolitical uncertainty, broader economic conditions would likely tighten if instability in the Gulf begins to affect global energy supply.

Criminal Risk During Periods of Geopolitical Instability

Periods of geopolitical uncertainty and economic volatility are often exploited by criminal syndicates and opportunistic actors. Rising fuel prices, supply chain disruptions and heightened public anxiety can create conditions in which organised crime expands activities such as fuel theft, fraud, cargo theft, cybercrime and opportunistic scams.

Criminal groups frequently use global crises as cover to intensify illicit activity, targeting both businesses and consumers while law enforcement attention is directed toward broader security concerns.

For organisations, this environment can increase exposure to cyber intrusions, supply chain crime and financial fraud, particularly where operations intersect with disrupted logistics networks or international markets. Also refer our Executive Brief “Trouble on the Horizon” of 13 February. 

Excellerate will continue to monitor developments and provide clients with timely updates on geopolitical and security risks that may affect the South African operating environment.

~ Source: Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA) Client Note