General Election Update

17 Apr 2024

Excellerate Security is #StayingPrepared.

As South Africa gears up for the General Election in May 2024, there is a delicate balance to strike between preparedness and alarmism, says Excellerate Services Managing Director Adriaan Otto. 

If the July 2021 riots taught us anything, it’s that preparedness is paramount. This includes reviewing and updating contingency plans, training and informing staff, and ensuring the safety and security of people and critical infrastructure. 

However it is critical that preparation is not seen as an overreaction or cause for alarm, rather it should be approached as a prudent business practice to mitigate risks and ensure continuity. It is therefore important for businesses communicate transparently and factually about their preparedness efforts to reassure stakeholders. 

A further lesson learned is just how detrimental speculation and misinformation can be in a crisis. Fake news fuels fear, creates unnecessary anxiety and undermines crisis management efforts. You can rest assured that Excellerate will only share news and intel reports from trusted sources.

Polling Data Highlights ANC's Challenges

With elections fast approaching, recent polling data from the Social Research Foundation suggests ongoing challenges for the African National Congress (ANC). 

The data shows ANC support at 38% nationally on a 60% turnout, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 25%, the MK Party at 14%, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 11%, and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) at 5%.

Respondents were divided on coalition preferences, with an ANC-DA coalition slightly preferred over an ANC-EFF coalition. However, an ANC-MK coalition garnered support as well. Many respondents were unfamiliar with the Multi-Party Charter (MPC), but half believed that MPC parties could bring the ANC below 50% and form an alternative government.

Provincial polling suggests a safe DA majority in the Western Cape and potential coalition governments in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN). 

In Gauteng, on a low turnout scenario, ANC support is at 33%, the DA at 30%, the EFF at 11%, MK at 12%, and ActionSA (ASA) at 5%. In KZN, polling predicts MK to be the largest party at 26%, followed by the DA at 21%, the ANC at 19%, and the IFP at 17%. Based on these numbers, forming a DA-led majority government in Gauteng and KZN would likely require including at least one of the ANC, EFF, or MK in a coalition.

Celebrations and Controversies

In their latest Risk Alert, the Centre for Risk Analysis reports that former President Jacob Zuma had reason to celebrate this past week as he marked his 82nd birthday and secured an unexpected victory in the Electoral Court. The court's ruling came as a surprise after the Electoral Commission (IEC) had previously disqualified Mr. Zuma from standing as a parliamentary candidate on the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) Party list due to his sentencing to more than 12 months' imprisonment.

Mr. Zuma's victory has sparked speculation about the reasoning behind the court's decision, as the full judgment has not been released. Some suggest that the court may have considered Mr. Zuma's effective sentence to be only three months, as it was remitted after three months of his 15-month sentence for contempt of court in 2021. Others speculate that Mr. Zuma's conviction for contempt of court, rather than a different crime, may have influenced the court's decision.

The IEC has announced that it will seek clarity from the Constitutional Court regarding the relevant section of the Constitution and its power to adjudicate objections to candidates.

Mr. Zuma's victory is expected to provide an electoral boost for the MK Party, which has adeptly leveraged controversies to maximise media exposure and reinforce the narrative of Mr. Zuma as a victim of unfair treatment.

~ Source – The Centre for Risk Analysis