South Africa's Current Electricity Situation

30 May 2023

Electricity situation — trends

South Africa’s electricity crunch is becoming worse. Up until 31 December, the average South African experienced a cumulative 35 days of blackouts in 2022, or 9.5% of the year. In 2023, it took just 129 days— until 9 May — to reach the same, meaning that South Africans had spent 27% of the year without power by 9 May. The average loadshedding stage was 3.11 in 2022 but it already is almost 4 in 2023. Over the last two months, unplanned outages have averaged between 16 000 MW and 17 000 MW.

Electricity situation — forecasts

Eskom’s forward planning assumes unplanned outages at 15 000 MW - 16 500 MW per week until the end of October 2023, then 13 000 MW - 14 500 MW through the end of March 2024. But these unplanned outage assumptions are inherently uncertain. On 18 May, the interim Group CEO of Eskom, Calib Cassim, said that the risk of Stage 8 loadshedding during the coming months was ‘extremely high’, should unplanned outages surpass 18 000 MW. Eskom’s average available capacity per week, after factoring in the reserve margin of 2 200 MW, unplanned outages, and planned maintenance, is estimated to be around 26 500 MW during the winter. Demand is forecast at up to 33 000 MW, leaving a shortfall of 6 500 MW which will likely be periodically exceeded and may lead to Stage 8 (and higher) loadshedding.

What the Government and Eskom are saying

On 9 May, the Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, told members of Parliament that because of Eskom’s 2 200 MW operating reserve, a national grid collapse was ‘highly unlikely.’ On 16 May, Eskom issued official communication refuting claims circulating on social media that a blackout was imminent, saying it had an ‘extremely low likelihood of materialising’ and quoting Mr. Cassim as saying that there were several controls in place and that he did not lose any sleep over the issue.

Grid collapse or not?

In assessing the likelihood of a grid collapse, it is helpful to think of the chain of events that would need to occur in sequence.

• First, unexpected outages and breakdowns in generation or transmission would have to occur quickly and at high levels, causing the electricity frequency on the grid to drop below minimum required levels. The correct frequency is 50Hz. If the total number of power units on the grid is unable to provide enough electricity to meet the demand, and if additional units cannot be brought into production immediately, frequency will begin to drop. It is then essential to shed the load.

• Second, for the blackout cascade to continue, the standard mechanism for responding to demand- supply imbalances, namely loadshedding, would need to fail — for example, because not enough load could be shed fast enough. In other words, Eskom would not be able to implement the higher loadshedding stages needed to protect the grid.

• Third, without loadshedding, grid frequency would drop. If it dropped below a minimum threshold, the power stations would begin to shut themselves down automatically to protect themselves. With the first one down, the frequency would drop much faster. Another would shut down and this would make things worse. So would another and another in an accelerating cascade. Within a minute, every single station would shut down, or at any rate disconnect itself from the grid. The whole country would be in blackout, and it might take one to three weeks to start the system up again.

Although we consider this a low-likelihood sequence of events, if it does occur, it will have a dramatic impact. It would radically accelerate the underlying trends of citizens’ frustration with the government, as well as safety and security problems that already afflict many citizens and businesses. Former Eskom CEO Andre de Ruyter has said that it would be ‘in all likelihood, a monumental and unprecedented national catastrophe that would threaten many lives’.

Despite the low probability of a blackout occurring, we nonetheless advise clients to put measures in place to protect their staff, operations, and equipment. Should it occur, there would be very little advance warning. In your planning you may want to consider some of the following headline categories:

Security

• Identify and prepare security personnel who will protect employees, as well as critical infrastructure and systems.
• Anticipate the possibility of riots and/or looting similar to that of July 2021.
• Work with government law enforcement (police and intelligence services), but do not rely on it.

Work

• Decide if employees must continue to report for work, and if so, until when.
• Plan for how to keep operations going, and if pausing operations, how and when to do so.

Fuel

• Prepare a fuel back-up, for instance, by keeping vehicle tanks filled. Rationing and shortages are very likely.
• Diesel especially could be in short supply as state use would be prioritised.
• If using gas for heating or food preparation, keep spare cylinders at hand.
• Unstable logistics and supply chains will have an impact on back-ups, e.g. in terms of diesel generators, due to fuel shortages.

Communications

• Prepare a communication back-up plan. Cell phone towers will only last for a certain number of hours on battery before they stop working.
• Working with local communities, establish pre-determined safe hubs where separated family members and colleagues should go if lines of digital or telephonic communication fail.
• Keep adequate cash on hand. During a blackout, ATMs, banking apps and online services would be unavailable for an extended period.

Water and waste water

• Anticipate water supply shut-offs (because pumping stations need electricity to work). Stock some drinking water; find out if neighbours are willing to share water (e.g. from tanks, boreholes, pools).
• Buy water purification tablets.
• Plan for sewage systems not working properly, with a potential impact on public health and hygiene (e.g. water-borne diseases).

Food

• Keep at hand some dry and tinned food that will last without refrigeration.
• Plan on how to dispose, safely and hygienically, of food that spoils when refrigeration begins to fail.

Medical

• Keep a basic medical kit available.
• If on chronic medication, try to obtain an emergency 2-3 week supply.

Social context

• Be mindful of the social impact a blackout would have. Hunger exacerbates frustration and feeds into protest/unrest action. A blackout will worsen the service delivery crisis, potentially fuelling political unrest and protests.
• Protests and riots are highly likely. Businesses should stand ready to implement the contingency plans they developed in the wake of July 2021. This must be done in active co-operation and association with local communities.

Conclusion

After 15 years of practice, Eskom has become highly adept at using loadshedding to protect the grid – a meagre comfort. We therefore view a grid collapse or national blackout as highly unlikely, but not impossible (0.1-1%).

The situation is highly fluid. A sharp increase in unplanned outages, for example as a breakdown of the available open-cycle gas turbines or large-scale transmission disruptions, could push things towards the blackout outcome. Such breakdowns could occur through human action (e.g. operator error or intentional sabotage), natural disasters or equipment failure. Because of the dramatic impact a blackout scenario would have, we advise you to give it your attention and put in place some preparatory measures.