Complex Coalitions and Crime Fighting Confusion

As South Africa ventures into an era of coalition politics, the significance of provincial and municipal powerbases is on the rise. The reported tensions between the provincial African National Congress (ANC) in Gauteng and the party’s National Executive Committee regarding working arrangements with the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) serve as an illustration. Last week’s remarks by Gauteng Premier, Panyaza Lesufi, stating that a national minister’s "days are numbered," further emphasize this trend.

Mr Lesufi advocates for legal recognition of his provincial 'crime prevention wardens' program in Gauteng. Taking ownership of a critical issue like crime can be a strategic move, as CRA polling consistently indicates that combating crime is a top priority for South Africans. However, the crime wardens program encroaches upon the domain of the South African Police Service (SAPS), as policing is a national competence under the jurisdiction of the Minister of Police, Bheki Cele—likely the focus of the Gauteng premier's verbal assault. A day after the video clip of his comments surfaced, Mr Lesufi issued an apology.

In 2024, we anticipate witnessing more instances of such conflict, as politics across the three spheres of government becomes more intertwined, while the national government and the ruling party continue to weaken. Over time, this will lead to involuntary devolution and greater subsidiarity, providing sub-national entities with opportunities to overshadow the central government, as demonstrated by the Western Cape province or the uMngeni municipality in KwaZulu-Natal. On the downside, local considerations of give-and-take, patronage, and influence will play a more significant role, degrading governance.

Murder Most Fowl

The quarterly crime statistics released last week reveal that 6,945 murders were reported between July and September 2023, equivalent to three people being slain every hour.

According to a report by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), the murder rate was 45 per 100,000 people between April 2022 and March 2023, one of the world’s highest. Four provinces—the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng, and the Western Cape—accounted for 83% of murders, while representing just 68% of the total population. In terms of the longer-term trend, the ISS reports the number of murders increasing by 77% in a decade, from 15,554 in 2011/12 to 27,494 in 2022/23. Over the same period, South Africa’s population increased by only 20%.

The failure of the SAPS has been comprehensive, and there is no indication that the government is addressing it. Commenting on the crime statistics last week, the police minister is reported as saying that ‘we think that we are heading in some direction’ and that ‘while cash heists are there, we are getting some sort of hold on it’.

Added to this, while delivering a parliamentary reply to the Democratic Alliance (DA) Shadow Minister of Police, Andrew Whitfield, Mr Cele revealed that the number of police reservists had dropped by 90% in a decade, from 52,054 in 2011/12 to 3,502 as of 31 October 2023.

The implication is that there will be no turnaround in crime trends under the current administration, which will continue to depress business activity and investment.

~Source: Centre for Risk Analysis