Crime and Weather: Why South Africa’s Summer Months Demand Extra Security Vigilance

12 Nov 2024

South Africa’s weather patterns have become increasingly unpredictable, with snow blanketing the Eastern Cape in November and the N3 highway facing dangerous closures and even a fatality from heavy snowfall in September. Amid these unusual weather shifts, the focus often falls on personal safety and planning for unexpected conditions, yet few consider how these changes might also impact crime patterns. With the warmer summer months now approaching, both historical and recent studies suggest that rising temperatures can bring heightened security risks.

The link between climate and crime was first explored by Belgian sociologist Adolphe Quetelet, who observed that crimes against people tend to peak in summer, while property crimes are more common in winter. Building on these findings, recent studies in South Africa show that crime rates shift in direct response to extreme weather, particularly temperature changes. For example, research indicates that as temperatures climb, so does the incidence of crime, with violent crimes spiking by 50% on hot days compared to very cold days, and sexual and property crimes rising by 41% and 12%, respectively.

As we head into a hot summer season, this data is particularly relevant. Warmer days and nights can create conditions ripe for specific types of criminal activity, especially during times when homes and businesses may be more active or less secure. While rainfall generally discourages crimes by limiting public activity, property crimes show a slight increase during heavy rain, likely due to reduced visibility and fewer active patrols. The broader community is encouraged to remain mindful of security needs in all types of weather, especially when reduced visibility or limited outdoor activity may impact security presence.

A particularly compelling point from this research is the impact of warm nights, which tend to spur criminal activity more than hot days. This insight underlines the importance of robust nighttime security measures. Businesses operating around the clock or with valuable assets on-site may want to review or strengthen overnight protocols, ensuring that well-trained security personnel and reliable monitoring systems are in place during vulnerable hours.

Recognising these weather-driven patterns allows law enforcement, business owners, and security providers to better anticipate high-risk periods and adapt their plans accordingly. Crime trends often peak during the warmer months, with a decline in the winter season (May through July). Preparing in advance for summer’s unique challenges can make a meaningful difference in safeguarding businesses, particularly those in high-traffic areas or at higher risk of theft.

While weather is beyond our control, its impact on crime, and, by extension, on business security, offers valuable insights. As South Africa’s summer season sets in, businesses are encouraged to ensure that their security strategies are both comprehensive and adaptable, covering every variable from warmer nights to sudden downpours. By updating monitoring systems, conducting nighttime checks, and equipping on-site security teams to manage unpredictable weather, businesses can help ensure a secure and resilient environment.

Source: Crown Publication, University of Pretoria, Econstor