2024 Election Update

10 Jun 2024

Uncertainty Persists as Coalition Negotiations Continue in South Africa

As South Africa's newly elected lawmakers prepare to meet for the first time, they face the important task of electing the country's president from their ranks. The new president will then need to form a cabinet, with most members coming from parliament and up to two from outside parliament.

Current Political Climate:

Last week, there were expectations of protests related to the election outcome. While some protests were observed, it is not clear if they were politically motivated. All reports are that the situation remains relatively calm as the country waits to see what the Government of National Unity will look like.

The Political Landscape:

The African National Congress (ANC) holds 159 of the 400 seats in the National Assembly. They need support from other parties to have a majority, elect a president, and form a government. The ANC's National Executive Committee (NEC) has suggested a government of national unity (GNU), inviting other parties to join a coalition government.

However, there are big differences in beliefs among the key parties. The Democratic Alliance (DA), with 87 seats, supports market-friendly policies and the Constitution. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), with 39 seats, support radical socialism, and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK), with 58 seats, promotes Zulu nationalism. These differences make it hard to form a united government.

The Dilemma:

The ANC faces a tough choice between moderation and radicalism. Choosing moderation would respect the Constitution and the rule of law, potentially improving governance and economic growth. Choosing radicalism could weaken the Constitution and the state, hurting the economy.

The Current Situation:

Internal conflicts within the ANC have changed several times over the past week, creating uncertainty. It is still unclear which path the ANC will take. Their decision will greatly impact the country's political and economic future, making this a crucial moment in South African politics.

As coalition negotiations continue, the nation watches closely, knowing the outcome will shape the future of governance and the broader socio-economic landscape. 

ANTICIPATED DEMONSTRATIONS AND SECURITY RISKS DURING BY-ELECTIONS IN KWAZULU-NATAL AND WESTERN CAPE ON 19/06/2024

By-elections are scheduled for several municipalities in KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape on 19th June 2024, as announced by the Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC). These elections are needed due to resignations and expulsions of ward councillors.

Key Municipalities and Wards Affected:

In the Western Cape, the City of Cape Town Metropolitan Municipality will have by-elections in Ward 113 due to a councillor's resignation. By-elections will also take place in Wards 64 and 105.

In KwaZulu-Natal, by-elections will occur in:

• Umzumbe Local Municipality: Wards 1, 2, 3, 9, and 19 (due to resignations).
• Ward 11 of an unspecified municipality: Due to a councillor's expulsion.
• uMvoti Local Municipality: Ward 10.
• Newcastle Local Municipality: Ward 5.
• Nongoma Local Municipality: Ward 11.
• Mthonjaneni Local Municipality: Ward 10.
• Umzimkhulu Local Municipality: Ward 1 (due to a councillor's passing).
• uPhongolo Local Municipality: Ward 15 (due to resignation).

Analysis and Potential Risks:

The period around the by-elections may be unstable, with possible unrest in the affected wards. Communities in these areas might express dissatisfaction with the election outcomes and processes, especially with the high political tensions after the 2024 National and Provincial Elections. Concerns over possible irregularities and biases could worsen the situation.

Potential risks include:

• Intimidation of voters and officials.
• Road blockades.
• Damage to property.
• Clashes between political party supporters.
• Hostilities toward IEC personnel and authorities.

Clients near these areas should closely monitor these developments and prepare to ensure safety during this period.

ASSURANCE FROM EXCELLERATE SERVICES

Excellerate Services is closely monitoring the situation and ready to act swiftly if any threats are reported. Phillip Els, Excellerate Head of Investigations and Intelligence, affirmed that, “So far, there have been no reports of politically related unrest as predicted last week. However, we are keeping a close eye on any developments.”

Excellerate is committed to the safety and security of our clients. We will continue to provide timely updates and take proactive measures to address any potential risks. 

We are dedicated to maintaining stability and ensuring peace of mind for all those we serve during this period of political uncertainty.

For further information or assistance, please contact our support team at our National Command Centre on 086 11 00 11.