Emerging Risk Alert

06 Jun 2024

Heightened Political Tensions and Operational Risks in South Africa

As the results of South Africa's recent National and Provincial Elections continue to reverberate, increased political tensions and the potential for unrest are a significant concern. Various agencies are issuing warnings about the heightened risk of violence and unrest linked to these tensions.

KEY DEVELOPMENTS:

Political Tensions and Reactions:

The ANC faces a choice at its national executive committee (NEC) meeting on Thursday: Forming a version of a Government of National Unity (GNU), which will include the EFF, or forming a minority government with the DA, IFP and other smaller parties.

The MK Party, led by former President Jacob Zuma, has rejected the election results and is demanding a recount, with the first sitting of Parliament expected by 16 June. The MK Party have also, to date, resisted invitations to enter into coalition dialogue with the ANC.

Increased Risk of Unrest:

Information suggests that members of the MK Party and their supporters are planning to boycott the first National Assembly sitting, set to take place at the Cape Town International Convention Centre (CTICC).

Protests to voice dissatisfaction with election results could materialize at the Constitutional Court on 6 June 2024 during the handing over of the lists of MPs and MPLs.

Demonstrations by political party members/supporters dissatisfied with the election outcome, proceedings, results, and coalition agreements could occur at the CTICC during the first NA sitting between 7 June 2024 and 16 June 2024.

Chris Hattingh, executive director at the Centre for Risk Analysis, said some political players are trying to take advantage of the current uncertainty. Hattingh told The Money Show that politicians like MK’s Jacob Zuma can benefit from increased uncertainty and anxiety. They can then ask for more concessions when there are coalition discussions because of pressure from the outside. “If there are protests and unrest, they can say give us what we want, and those actions will cease,” he said.

The good news is that the police, private security, the business sector, and community organisations are more prepared than during the July 2021 riots. That means those trying to sow dissent and encourage protests and unrest must consider their timing. It will make sense for them to wait until the police and intelligence services drop their guard and relax before striking.

He added that sporadic and seemingly isolated protest action seen in KwaZulu-Natal could be to test the security services. “If they don’t see sufficient pushback, they can mobilise more people and push forward,” Hattingh said. He added that politicians trying to incite violence and unrest will use people’s frustrations to their benefit. The country’s poor economic growth, high unemployment, poverty, and poor service delivery create fertile ground to incite protests.

Security Measures:

Increased security is anticipated nationwide, with a focus on areas with a higher threat of politically motivated protests and violence.

News24 reports that National police commissioner General Fannie Masemola has deployed additional Public Order Policing (POP) officers to KwaZulu-Natal amid concerns about civil unrest over the election results. Police spokesperson Brigadier Athlenda Mathe said the latest deployment of more than 300 POP members was meant to bolster policing operations in the post-election phase. "In this phase, law enforcement agencies monitor activities related to the outcome of the elections results. "This means deployments remain in place at various places of interest and law enforcement agencies are ready for any emerging incidents," she added.

Leadership and Responsibility:

President Cyril Ramaphosa has called for responsible leadership and constructive engagement, emphasizing that there should be no place for threats of violence or instability

Business Unity South Africa (BUSA) has urged political parties to act responsibly and refrain from inciting violence.

His Majesty King Misuzulu kaZwelithini has applauded the Independent Electoral Commission for ensuring a free, fair, and credible election, and commended all political parties for their peaceful conduct during the campaign and on election day. He has called upon law enforcement agencies to deal firmly with those seeking to cause instability and mayhem, and instructed izinduna in hostels around Gauteng and Durban to report any attempts to instigate violence or lawlessness.

Assurance from Excellerate Services:

At Excellerate Services, we are acutely aware of these emerging risks and are committed to maintaining a state of readiness to ensure the safety and security of our clients. Our teams are actively monitoring the situation and are prepared to respond swiftly to any incidents that may arise. Our integrated communications platform, Excellerate SmartConnect, is fully operational to keep you informed and connected during this period.

Conclusion:

While the current political climate in South Africa presents challenges, Excellerate Services is dedicated to ensuring the safety and security of our clients. We will continue to monitor developments closely and take all necessary precautions to mitigate risks. Your safety is our top priority, and we are here to support you through these uncertain times.

Stay safe, stay informed, and trust in Excellerate Services to navigate these challenges with you.

For further information or assistance, please contact our support team at our National Command Centre on 086 11 00 11.