Election Update

20 May 2024

Breaking News: 20 May 2024: South Africa's Constitutional Court has determined that former President Jacob Zuma is ineligible to run as a parliamentary candidate in the upcoming elections this month. This ruling from the highest court in the nation escalates concerns that Zuma's supporters from the uMkhonto weSizwe Party may incite unrest leading up to the May 29 vote or dispute the results. Party leaders have already expressed intentions to disrupt the electoral process should Zuma remain disqualified.

This news comes on the back of recently released police crime intelligence report which has highlighted significant risks of violence, intimidation, and potential boycotts disrupting the upcoming South African elections. This 14-page report, covered by City Press, was presented to key national security bodies, emphasizing the need for a peaceful, fair electoral process. It cites direct risks including trucker strikes and court rulings that could affect participation, identifying specific areas prone to political unrest and disruptions at voting stations.

Researchers and experts have raised concerns that such threats and the general societal discontent could erode business and investor confidence. Following the violent riots in July 2021, improvements have been made in communication and coordination among police, private security, and intelligence systems to better manage any potential violence. President Cyril Ramaphosa has warned of strict actions against any unrest, with 17,000 police officers set to be deployed in high-risk areas during the elections.

Economists and analysts echo these concerns, pointing to the volatile mix of divisive political rhetoric, entrenched inequalities, and economic challenges as major drivers of potential unrest. The situation poses a significant threat to both political stability and economic health, with recent increases in policy uncertainty impacting business confidence and investment ahead of the elections.

Polling Results

With just over a week to go until the elections, the Social Research Foundation’s (SRF) daily tracking poll shows support for the African National Congress (ANC) still rising, with the party now comfortably above the 45% line, at 46% as of 17 May. With a small increase in support over the 10 days up to the election, a bit of help from the 4% margin of error, and a low voter turnout, a majority is still within reach for the ANC – but by no means guaranteed. 

The Democratic Alliance (DA) is holding steady around 24%, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) is at 9%, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 8%, and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) at 4%. These figures are modelled for 60% turnout. At the provincial level in Gauteng, modelled for 62% turnout, both the ANC and the DA have been rising over the past week, with the latest numbers putting the ANC at 39% and the DA at 29%, respectively. The EFF is slowly dropping and is at 9%. MK is at 7%, showing high volatility. Action SA is at 4% and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) at 3%. In KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), on 60% turnout, MK has risen steeply over the past week, to 31%. It has overtaken the ANC, which has dropped equally steeply, to 28%. The DA and the IFP are both at 18%, while the EFF is at 3% and showing no signs of recovery. Finally, in the Western Cape, modelled on 60% turnout, the DA has over the last week halted and reversed its decline of the preceding three weeks. It registered 58% support compared to 23% for the ANC. The PA is at 5%, the EFF at 3%, with Mmusi Maimane’s BOSA, the ACDP, and the Freedom Front Plus at 3% or below.  

What’s Happening With Loadshedding? 

A factor that has protected support for the ANC from further decline is the absence of loadshedding for the past 55 days, since 26 March 2024. 

Eskom statistics show that the energy availability factor – which measures the share of Eskom’s generation capacity that is actually capable of producing – has risen steadily, from 49% in the first week of 2024 to 65% in the latest report. Over the same period, the unplanned outage factor, which measures breakdowns, has dropped from 31% to 26%. The planned outage factor, which measures plants taken offline for maintenance, has declined from 19% to 9%. This is in keeping with the trend of doing more maintenance in summer, when demand is lower, and less in winter.  

Greater coal plant reliability, together with increased rooftop solar production and a weak economy, are the main factors explaining the absence of loadshedding. Although Eskom’s annual forecast anticipates loadshedding to occur in 48 of the 52 weeks ahead, this could in fact be an overly conservative assessment.

Source: Centre for Risk Analysis