Governance & Politics - 20 May 2024

20 May 2024

GOVERNANCE AND POLITICS

• The Social Research Foundation’s (SRF) daily tracking poll shows support for the African National Congress (ANC) still rising, with the party now comfortably above the 45% line, at 46% as of 17 May. With a small increase in support over the 10 days up to the election, a bit of help from the 4% margin of error, and a low voter turnout, a majority is still within reach for the ANC – but by no means guaranteed. The Democratic Alliance (DA) is holding steady around 24%, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) is at 9%, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 8%, and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) at 4%. These figures are modelled for 60% turnout. At the provincial level in Gauteng, modelled for 62% turnout, both the ANC and the DA have been rising over the past week, with the latest numbers putting the ANC at 39% and the DA at 29%, respectively. The EFF is slowly dropping and is at 9%. MK is at 7%, showing high volatility. Action SA is at 4% and the Patriotic Alliance (PA) at 3%. In KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), on 60% turnout, MK has risen steeply over the past week, to 31%. It has overtaken the ANC, which has dropped equally steeply, to 28%. The DA and the IFP are both at 18%, while the EFF is at 3% and showing no signs of recovery. Finally, in the Western Cape, modelled on 60% turnout, the DA has over the last week halted and reversed its decline of the preceding three weeks. It registered 58% support compared to 23% for the ANC. The PA is at 5%, the EFF at 3%, with Mmusi Maimane’s BOSA, the ACDP, and the Freedom Front Plus at 3% or below. (Source)

• Threat of unrest during elections. A police crime intelligence threat analysis has raised an alarm that the pending elections may be marred by violence, intimidation and even boycotts in some parts of the country. The 14-page threat analysis report, compiled by the SA Police Service crime intelligence unit, was tabled on Friday to the State Security Agency, the SA National Defence Force (SANDF) and the police top brass. The three entities are responsible for ensuring that the climate around the elections on May 29 allows for a free and fair poll, unmarred by intimidation or violence. The report highlights what the researchers call “direct risks” and “indirect risks”. (Source)

• ANC-DA partnership scenario Oxford Economics Africa says a scenario where the DA would partner with the ANC after the elections will improve South Africa’s economic outlook and prompt credit ratings agencies to upgrade the country’s sovereign credit rating. An ANC-DA coalition is the third and “best case” of the four scenarios modelled, which envisages that in this scenario the DA would partner with the ANC after being given assurances about economic liberalisation and prudent public spending, and the promise of major cabinet appointments. However, the changes implemented by the new team would take a while to reflect and could present a higher risk of protest and unrest. (Source)

• Planned State Asset Management Company. South Africa’s embattled state-owned entities will enter a new era after the elections as the government seeks to end years of looting and mismanagement under state capture. The government has doled out billions in guarantees and bailouts to SOEs, including Eskom and SAA, over the past three decades.  Rail and ports company Transnet is implementing a major turnaround plan that will see the private sector roped in to help run port terminals and rail operations. Now a bill before parliament could result in the department of public enterprises ceasing to exist in favour of a holding company that will manage SOEs on behalf of the government. Deputy director-general in the department of public enterprises Melanchton Makobe said the bill, which seeks to establish a State Asset Management Company, would draw the necessary expertise to revive and manage SOEs. (Source)

• NHI Bill signed into law. President Cyril Ramaphosa signed the controversial National Health Insurance Bill into law, setting the scene for a flood of legal challenges. South Africa’s key industry associations for medical schemes, trade union Solidarity, and the country’s biggest doctor organisation, among others, are preparing to launch legal action, with further opposition expected from other healthcare professionals and organised business. Legal experts point out that the NHI legislation in its current form is open to constitutional challenges based on the right to freedom of association, if it attempts to force people to register as NHI users. Opposition parties have criticised the law as an unaffordable and unconstitutional election gimmick before the 29 May elections. (Source | Source)

• SARS surveillance barred from cigarette factories. The Gauteng High Court has granted an interdict against the SA Revenue Service installing cameras to monitor tobacco warehouses, pending the outcome of a judicial review application launched in 2022. In December 2023, the same court ruled that SARS could install cameras to fulfil new licensing rules to combat illicit trading. On 15 May, Judge Linda Retief granted interim relief in the matter brought by the Fair-Trade Independent Tobacco Association alongside six of its members to halt the implementation of Rule 19-09. In its main application, Fita contended that the introduction of the rule was unconstitutional and stood to be set aside. SARS and the fiscus lose an estimated R8 billion annually due to the illicit trade of tobacco. (Source)

• Rafah: SA's complaint against Israel at ICJ.  The government wants court to order IDF to withdraw and cease its military offensive. (Source)

• IEC approves 160 observer missions for election. The Electoral Commission has approved 160 observer missions that will monitor the upcoming general elections. The IEC said that 15 of these would be international organisations like the African Union and the Carter Center Democracy Program. In a media briefing, the commission said it was expecting 5 000 domestic and international observers, and emphasised that Zimbabwe's governing party, ZANU-PF, was not part of the accredited missions. This comes after the African National Congress said it would be inviting officials from the party to oversee the elections. (Source)

• City of Tshwane improves financial position. The City of Tshwane has implemented what it said is strict fiscal discipline, which improved the metro’s coffers with positive cash and cash equivalents amounting to R835 million at the 2022/23 year end. In its audited 2022/23 annual report, the metro, which is run by a DA-led multiparty coalition, noted that over the previous financial years the city’s financial position deteriorated as it was dogged by a decline in billed operating revenue and the collection rate. (Source)